The Autumn Budget 2026 will be delivered on Wednesday 28 October, Chancellor John Healey confirmed on 31 July, asking the Office for Budget Responsibility to publish a full economic and fiscal forecast alongside the speech. It is the earliest UK Budget since 27 October 2021, and the first delivered under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who took office on 20 July after Rachel Reeves left the Treasury. With just over two months on the clock, the tax measures themselves remain unconfirmed — but speculation over capital gains tax and stamp duty has intensified through August, built largely on the voting records of the ministers now shaping the package.
Healey announced the date through a video statement rather than a written release on GOV.UK, a departure from the format Reeves used for her two Budgets. The government has repeated its manifesto pledge not to raise the headline rates of income tax, National Insurance or VAT for "working people", which leaves threshold freezes and targeted levies on dividends, savings, pensions and property as the more likely routes to raising revenue. None of those specific measures have been announced for 28 October, and several outlets covering the run-up have stressed that anything beyond the date itself is speculation rather than confirmed policy.
What is already locked in from the last Budget
Some of the numbers circulating this week are not new proposals at all — they were set at the 2025 Budget and simply take effect on a delayed timetable. Dividend tax rates of 10.75% and 35.75% for the 2026/27 tax year were confirmed last autumn, alongside a dividend allowance held at £500 a year and a Business Asset Disposal Relief rate of 18%. Income tax thresholds remain frozen under policy carried over from the previous Parliament, meaning wage growth continues to pull more taxpayers into higher bands without any explicit rate change being announced at all.
The OBR forecast due alongside the 28 October speech typically runs to several hundred pages and covers growth, borrowing and inflation projections rather than the Budget's specific tax measures, though its assumptions about fiscal headroom often shape which options the Chancellor feels able to take off the table. Healey's decision to request the forecast in the same video statement that confirmed the date, rather than waiting for a separate announcement closer to the event, was itself read by several commentators as a signal that the Treasury wants scrutiny of the numbers to start early rather than compressed into the final fortnight before Budget day.
The most relevant change for savers is a confirmed cut to the Cash ISA subscription limit for under-65s, falling to £12,000 a year from April 2027, down from the current £20,000 allowance. Savers over 65 are reported to keep the higher limit. That reduction sits alongside the wider cash-versus-stocks-and-shares ISA debate already running among UK savers this year, and it gives anyone weighing up how to use this year's full £20,000 allowance a concrete deadline to work against before the lower cap arrives.
Capital gains tax: the voting-record argument
An analysis published by pensions provider PensionBee on 18 August, written by Adam Cooper, examined the past voting records of the ministers most involved in shaping the Budget and concluded they "point towards tax rises and away from welfare cuts". The analysis named four figures specifically: Andy Burnham, John Healey, Emma Reynolds — the Chief Secretary to the Treasury — and Torsten Bell, the Pensions Minister who previously advised Reeves in the run-up to her own Budgets. All four, according to the PensionBee review, have a consistent history of voting in favour of capital gains tax increases.
The same analysis flagged that Bell and Reynolds have also backed stamp duty rises in past votes, which has fed directly into speculation about property taxation ahead of October. None of this amounts to a policy announcement. Voting records describe past positions, not confirmed plans for a Budget that has not yet been drafted in detail, but it is the strongest evidence cited so far for where pressure inside government may be building. PensionBee's own commentary framed the exercise as a read on political direction rather than a prediction of specific rates, a caveat worth keeping in mind given how far out the actual Budget documents still are.
Property tax speculation is already shaping housing decisions
Jeremy Leaf, a London estate agent and former residential chairman of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, said around 7 August that speculation over property tax changes was "increasingly" becoming a factor buyers and sellers weigh before deciding whether to transact. That kind of pre-Budget hesitation has a precedent: stamp duty threshold changes ahead of past Budgets have repeatedly pulled transactions forward or pushed them back as buyers try to time a purchase around an announcement date. Estate agents in London and the South East, where average property values put more transactions within reach of any raised stamp duty band, are typically the first to report clients asking whether to complete before or after Budget day.
Separately, The Telegraph reported around 5 August that the Chancellor is considering borrowing up to £9bn to fund infrastructure, housing development and business incentives, drawing on the fiscal rule changes Reeves introduced during her time at the Treasury. That borrowing plan, if it goes ahead, would sit on the spending side of the Budget rather than the tax-raising side — a distinction that matters, because a government funding investment through borrowing has less immediate pressure to raise capital gains tax or stamp duty purely to cover day-to-day costs.
Pushback from inside government
Not every signal points toward higher property and investment taxes. An unnamed government source told a newspaper around 18 August that "Rachel Reeves did the tax-raising in her two Budgets, and they shouldn't do any more," arguing that the government has "reached the limits on tax" and should shift focus toward growth and reform instead. That comment reflects a live disagreement inside government over whether a third consecutive Budget built around tax rises is politically sustainable, particularly this early into Burnham's premiership.
Burnham himself has leaned toward the growth argument on at least one measure. Speaking around 12 August, he said he was "going further on business rates" after a 20% cut already announced for pubs, clubs and live music venues — a targeted relief measure rather than a broad tax change, but one that suggests business support, not just revenue-raising, will feature in the October package.
What's confirmed versus what isn't
For UK households tracking the run-up to 28 October, the distinction between confirmed policy and speculation matters more than usual this year. The Budget date, the £12,000 Cash ISA cap from April 2027, the 10.75%/35.75% dividend tax rates and the 18% Business Asset Disposal Relief figure are all settled. Capital gains tax changes, stamp duty changes and the scale of any new borrowing are not — they remain live questions that will not be resolved until Healey stands up in the Commons in late October.
Financial advisers quoted across the coverage of this period have generally pointed to the same practical point: allowances and rates that apply under 2026/27 rules remain in force until the Budget actually changes them, and using an allowance before it potentially disappears carries no downside if the change never materialises. Whether that applies to this year's full £20,000 ISA subscription, a pension contribution timed ahead of any relief change, or a property sale already under offer will depend on individual circumstances that only become clearer once the Budget itself is published.
The gap between now and 28 October leaves room for further reporting, further ministerial voting-record analyses and further estate-agent surveys of buyer hesitation, none of which will settle the question until Healey opens his red box in the Commons. Two months out, the only two facts anyone can act on with certainty are the date itself and the rules that already apply for 2026/27.